03 November 2008

The Commish's predictions

We at Bipartisan Rules wholeheartedly endorse Sen. John McCain for the presidency. However, the unfortunate realities of the current political climate -- thanks in large part to the the crushing economic crisis and the mismanagement and incompetence of the Bush administration -- are such that Sen. Barack Obama will become the 44th president of the United States.

First off, the Democratic Party will make enormous gains in the U.S. Senate. I expect the Dems to pick up seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Virginia. I do not believe, as many pundits do, that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be knocked off in Kentucky, nor do I think that Republican Saxby Chambliss will lose in Georgia. I also expect Sen. Norm Coleman to stave off Al Franken in Minnesota. This would give the Democrats 56 seats, plus "independent" (see: socialist) Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The Republicans would then have 42, plus Joe Lieberman, who presumably will caucus with the GOP once he's tossed out of his chairmanship.

I don't much care to predict the House races, but needless to say, the GOP is in for another long night on that front.

Finally, with respect to the presidential race, I do not believe Sen. Obama will approach the 350-vote threshold that many pundits are gleefully predicting. That said, the Hopemonger will almost assuredly flip Iowa and New Mexico to his column (both were Bush states in 2004). I also expect Obama to win in Nevada, Colorado, and crushingly, by a razor-thin margin in Virginia. The Changemaker will hang on by four points in Pennsylvania, and will win by eight in McCain-friendly New Hampshire.

I expect McCain to hold on to win in Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota and Indiana. 

I have no clue about Florida, which has decided the last two elections and on which Obama has zeroed in heavily. The most recent poll -- conducted by Rasmussen -- put McCain ahead 50-49, but given the toxic political climate in which the Senior Senator finds himself, I can't imagine that he'd win every single toss-up state. 

Thus, the prediction: Obama 317, McCain 221.

This will be no means be a blowout. I expect Obama to reach 51% nationally, with McCain at 48 and Nader and Barr taking a combined 1 percent.

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